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Mitigating interest rate risk through bond ‘ladders’

July 29, 2015/in Research /by Vodia Staff

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the inevitable rise in interest rates, including particular concern on behalf of bond investors. While there is consensus that rates will rise, no one is sure when. The US is still recovering from the great recession, economic growth is slow, and median household income has declined. It is conceivable that interest rates could remain low for quite some time. Taking the Fed announcements at face value, interest rates will rise when economic conditions in the US warrant it.

The concern of bondholders is valid, as the value of bonds will indeed decrease when rates go up. If rates are up, your market price will be lower and vice versa if rates go down. As a result, investors can see wide fluctuations in value depending on maturity dates, and this can be unsettling.

The good news is bonds that pay a fixed coupon (some have a variable coupon) will pay a steady stream of income regardless of interest rate movement. Since the coupon is fixed, the income from the bond will remain unchanged – no matter what the current price is. Thankfully, we are able to structure the bonds within the portfolio such that the impact of interest rate movement is minimized, even when we do not know when interest rates will rise. An effective method for mitigating interest rate risk is to create a bond “ladder”. This is a strategy that has one or more bonds come due over a period of years. For example, if you had $100,000, you would have a $10,000 bond come due once a year for ten years. If your ladder is established before a rise in interest rates, you will be getting cash from maturing bonds to re-invest at higher rates as they come due.

Building an effective ladder starts with defining your objectives, structuring the capital allocation within the portfolio, and not concerning yourself with the timing of purchases.

Market Update: July 2014

July 18, 2014/in Market Update /by David Matias

If you’ve seen the news over the past two weeks, you’ll have noticed there is much joy in the U.S. financial picture. The Dow has reached an all-time high of 17,000, unemployment dropped again in June to 6.1% after 280,000 new jobs were created, and fear levels, as measured by the various “fear indices,” are at lows that have not been seen more than once a decade. Stocks are up another 8% for this year, on top of last year’s meteoric rise, and bonds, which were assumed to be poised for a significant decline, are, in fact, up this year by 4%. There is no shortage of good news when it comes to investing.

The risks and realities, however, are very different. The U.S. economy actually contracted, for the first part of this year; long-term unemployment is still at levels never seen in the modern U.S. economy; and the level of global conflict has risen to a level not seen since the 1970s. Globally, sustained growth is still in doubt: Europe has still failed to extract itself from a recession and risks deflation, Asia is looking for that “soft landing” of slowing the asset bubbles without cratering the economy, and wealth inequality is beyond comprehension.

We are in fact, looking at a tale of two minds. One mind believes in the ability of stocks to rise in any situation; the other mind is on constant alert for the next set of bad news that could impact the global balance.

If we stick to home, and take a closer look at the U.S. economy, we can get a better picture of how the goods news we are used to seeing in asset prices is still ahead of the good news we need about overall economic recovery.

All major asset classes have shown similar growth in 2014 thus far, indicating a “risk-on” market mentality as investors seek returns through greater risk taking. While not matching last year’s performance in equities, the consistency of returns in unique.

Markets – Equities

On the bright side, markets continue their rise after a rocky start to the year. Last year’s meteoric upswing in equities was quickly met with a harsh pause in January, as stock prices closed out that month down 6%. What could have been a further rout of markets was, it appears, a retesting of market levels and a chance for some to take risk off the table. With the market more than doubling since the lows of 2009, it is not unusual for an entire group of investors to take a breather and turn those gains into cash thereby protecting themselves again sudden declines.

By the end of Q1, the markets regained their equilibrium, and demonstrated a slight gain for the year. That gain of just a few percent was tenuous for the next few weeks until May and June, when equities reached new highs and are now posting 8% gains for the S&P 500.

Interestingly, in this rally, the gains have been in the larger valuation companies, not growth firms. Specifically, large and mid-cap value companies have gained 8% and 11% respectively, while small-caps are doing only a fraction of that at 2-4%. This difference reflects an interesting change from the dot-com rally of the 1990s – investors are looking for some substantiation of the company’s stock price, not just a whiff of promise that the firm might make enormous profits later. Although this is not a strict trend, it points to some sanity in the current rally.

Markets – Fixed Income

As opposed to stocks, whose rise was almost universally projected at the beginning of the year – albeit to varying degrees – bonds were supposed to fall. I did not read a single prediction that bonds would rise in 2014; naysayers pointed to the Fed’s reduction in quantitative easing and rising interest rates. Instead, rates have stayed level or gone down, with bonds up across the board.

While the average bond market return of 4% YTD (8% annualized) is impressive in any environment, the composition is even more interesting. High-yield bonds (non-investment grade corporates), have some of the lowest spreads to treasuries in recent history, posting a 5.5% gain for the year, while thirty-year U.S. treasuries posted a 14% gain this year. The compression of spreads on high-yield is an indicator of the continued economic recovery, amid predictions that corporate defaults will be extremely low. These phenomena are consistent with the complacency we have seen in the equity markets. The explanation I’ve heard on the treasuries is a little more complicated, but in short, there are simply not enough bonds to go around. Institutional investors, who need these risk-free bonds to hedge portfolios and meet investment mandates, demand them while the available supply dwindles.

All these dynamics are reflective of the accommodative monetary policies of our central bank, the Fed, as well as the global central banks. The Fed grew their balance sheet by $3.5 trillion from 2008 to today – all of that representing “new money” in the banking system. Around the globe, the figures are similar in size. From that new money, and the Fed’s use of it to purchase bonds in the market, we have seen rates down and prices up.

The downside of this stimulus is difficult to predict. The Fed will stop printing new money in the fall, as anticipated, yet we have not seen any of the market reaction that we might have expected. Notably, inflation has remained negligible. The fear four years ago was that inflation would run to extreme levels and hamper the recovery; now, we are now faced with the opposite problem. We need some inflation to stimulate consumption (encouraging buyers today, when things are less expensive), yet global developed markets have seen flat prices and the US inflation index is under 2%.

The immediate impact is on retirement planning. In effect, if you wish to invest your money risk- free for the next ten years, the spread between income and inflation is nearly zero. Your money, in terms of real dollars, will not grow. This can have a potentially devastating impact over the coming years as the economy returns to historical averages for these measures. Namely, some areas of price inflation hit ordinary people very hard – food prices, for example. In fact, food prices have risen steadily over the past few years with some basics, such as meats, seeing 15-20% annual price increases. Yet food is not counted in the inflation gauge (called non-core CPI), and hence we are left to feel the impact without acknowledging the problem.

Economy

The perverse dynamic of inflation is best understood in the context of the jobs market. As we continue to remind folks, the measure of jobs health used by the media is misleading. Unemployment does not reflect the jobs participation rate, ignoring those who have simply left the market. Instead, we look at total employment as a percent of the population, as you’ll see below. While the trend has been encouraging, it shows only marginal improvement from the end of the recession five years ago.

An equally disturbing trend is the long-term unemployed. As you can see from the chart below, those unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as a portion of the total unemployed population spiked to levels never seen before. And while the trend has brought that level down from 1-in-2 unemployed to 1-in-3, it is still well above historical levels.

Long-term unemployed (27 weeks or greater) as a percentage of total unemployed. We reached levels (45%) double the long-term average, and have not employed most of these workers in the recovery thus far. While the level has dropped to 33%, we still have an unprecedented problem.

The impact is devastating on the economy and on people. There has been a wave of forced retirees, folks who were at the prime of their career with vast experience and education who simply cannot find suitable work. This has also fed the inflation dynamic mentioned above – people are unwilling to switch jobs for fear of losing theirs. With fewer employed folks job-hunting, this puts a damper on wage increase and ultimately lowers the cost of labor for firms. Labor costs, being one of the major components of inflation, have helped to tamper inflation as measured by the government. Yet, while wages remain flat, basic costs such as food and fuel continue to rise, creating an impact on Americans’ daily lives.

As we look at the other aspects of the U.S. economy, the message is equally mixed. We are seeing a renaissance in energy, with U.S. reserves and production of natural gas and crude exceeding even the wildest estimates from just five years ago. Yet energy prices continue to climb as global conflict creates uncertainty and the cost of refining keeps prices high on gasoline and heating oil.

Another paradoxical phenomenon is general economic growth. Consumer confidence, the general measure of how likely people are going to spend, is back to its long-term average and touching levels not seen since the Great Recession began. Yet, GDP, the measure of production, and by inference, consumption, contracted in the first quarter by -2.9%, again the first time since the Great Recession ended. Although much of that contraction has been blamed on the bitter winter, it is still a reduction in the economy that requires a steep recovery.

GDP quarter-over-quarter annualized change from 2000-2014. While we have shown steady growth since 2009, Q1 saw a -3% decline. Q2 numbers, due out shortly, will test the assumption of a sustained economic recovery.

Global Conflict and Perception

One of my earliest lessons learned as a student of international relations was the damning relationship between the economy and global conflict. As discussed in the Wall Street Journal (“An Arc of Instability Unseen Since the ‘70s,” July 14, 2014), we are facing the most challenging set of circumstances we have witnessed since the late 1970s and the height of the Cold War. There are two civil wars that have the potential to spill over into U.S. interests (Syria and Iraq); Afghanistan is facing an electoral crisis; Russia is promoting ethnic strife in Ukraine after invading Crimea; the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is heating up with little signs of easing. In short, we are seeing some of the worst conflicts of our generation peak at roughly the same time.

[Note: This article was being finalized as a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet was shot down over the Ukraine, emphasizing just how volatile these conflicts have become]

I am loathe to make any sort of political commentary, but each and every one of these conflicts has the potential to draw the U.S. back into an armed conflict, even during a time when the US has resoundingly shown little interest in engagement. This perception – that the U.S. will not engage to resolve conflict – has created the adverse effect of increasing the belligerence of rogue actors. It is a perverse situation that echoes through the history of nation-state politics: perceived weakness breeds conflict, while the threat of might promotes peace. The impact on our economy is unmistakable. Put succinctly, what happens abroad can destroy our recovery at home.

These conflicts are developing rapidly against a backdrop of pressing global issues that are damaging our ability to grow. From climate change and viral outbreaks to food scarcity, we are facing a growing global series of challenges that will require a coordinated and intelligent response. Yet the denial is palpable. For instance, rising sea levels have put major roads in Miami under water during regular tide surges, a trend that will continue to engulf the city in sea water in the coming years. Yet real estate prices continue to climb in the city, development is robust, and elected politicians continue to deny there is a problem.

The math is undeniable: the economy will suffer and our quality of life will be threatened. To combat the rising tides in South Beach, the city of Miami has already committed $1.4 billion to shoring up the roads. That is money spent to stem a problem, money that could have been better used to invest in a technology or build up our educational system. We are increasingly short sighted as a society as the world quite literally “heats up.”

As a parting thought, I offer this last chart, which shows the fear gauge on the S&P 500, a broad measure taken from the futures market that shows how stock traders view the short-term future. A lower number indicates a perception of calm and rising markets, a higher number indicates rocky or down markets. For reference, the index bottoms out at 10 during strong bull markets, and peaks at 80 during market calamities such as 2008, with an average level of 20. In the past two weeks, VIX has hovered between 10 and 12. Perception of financial risk, at this moment in time, is the lowest it has ever been. Are we putting our heads in the sand? And what will the consequences of our denial be?

VIX from 1990 to 2014. At only three times in the past 24 years has the VIX reached a low of 10 – a level that shows perception of financial risk is at its lowest possible. Once in 1993, another in early 2007, and today.

As I am fond of saying, perception is reality. Today, the markets perceive low risk and rising assets ahead. That perception, however, will be fragile as broader issues take root in daily life. And as perception changes, so will the financial risks that we all face.

I want investors to be aware that although some things are stabilizing, we live in destabilizing times. It is this balancing act of perception against reality that drives our portfolio composition. We have seen that managed volatility in our portfolios, while capturing growth from a variety of asset classes and strategies, leads to stable returns over the long haul. Put another way, these portfolios are designed as an all-weather strategy, a welcome approach when the line between perception and reality becomes blurred.

Rest assured that we at Vodia are keeping abreast of current issues in order to keep our investors informed and our assets as protected as possible. We remain optimistic, and realistic.

It is our job to monitor the world and manage the portfolios. It is your job to enjoy the summer.

Regards,

David B. Matias, CPA
Managing Principal

Market Update: January 2014

January 30, 2014/in Market Update /by David Matias

It is a little tough to believe that it is 2014 and already a new year. But in a sense I am quite relieved that 2013 is done and behind us. It was a defining year in the modern era of finance. This time, the disparity between developed market stocks (US, EU and Japan) and the rest of the asset world (emerging markets, bonds, and commodities) was the largest ever. In fact, there has never been a time when developed stocks surged, surpassing all other asset classes. There was a period in the late 1990s when there was a strong divergence, but even in those markets, the other asset classes posted modest gains.

The history books on finance are being rewritten as we speak, because financial stimulus in the developed markets has been unprecedented while global economic growth has been anemic. This massive flow of capital into specific markets caused those markets to bolt ahead, while giving impetus for economic growth. Some of that growth is just from folks feeling safe to spend again; some of it is from further wealth concentration and investment by an ever-smaller segment of the population. Until the economic growth is diverse and stable, however, markets will be at risk. Witness the events of Friday, January 24th, when the Dow lost over 300 points over concerns of the impact of Fed stimulus tapering on emerging market currencies.S

SPACEPACE

Chart 1: Major Asset Class Returns in 2013. While the US and International Developed Markets (the EU and Japan, namely) surged in 2013, the remaining asset classes had losses for the year. At no other time in modern finance has such a disparity existed. [Notes: within fixed income, junk bonds posted a modest gain. The modern era covers 1980 forward, when the advent of IT and derivative markets changed market fundamentals.] Source: Bloomberg

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We have Ben Bernanke and his leadership to thank for both this blessing and curse. The blessing is the remarkable recovery we have seen from the Great Recession – a period which could have become much worse had the Fed not engineering a global life preserver. Now that Bernanke is stepping down next month as Chairman of the Fed, it is worth examining this legacy.

Bernanke and His Legacy

Ben Bernanke effectively navigated the US economy through a financial crisis that had the potential to tear down our entire economy and recreate another Great Depression. We came very close to true economic devastation. Bernanke, in all his academic prescience, saw what could happen and in the absence of solid fiscal measures because of political dysfunction, he used the Fed’s balance sheet to pump trillions into the financial system. Frankly, he saved our economy.

What we don’t know as of today is how that legacy will bear out. As we saw with Alan Greenspan in the 1990s, what was then viewed as pristine policy turned out to be irresponsible stimulus that helped create the dotcom bubble and trillions of lost asset value. The most relevant impact of this stimulus has been the explosion of consumption in the US driving much of our economic growth at the expense of exports. Where consumption used to be 50% of our GDP in the 1950s, it has grown to 70% today. This increase was the impact of the easy money policies of the 1990s and 2000s, where we saw capital flood the equity markets and then the real estate markets, creating paper wealth for millions. Unfortunately, that vanished in just weeks and months.

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Chart 2: The S&P 500: 1990 to 2013. In the chart to the right, we see how market volatility has changed dramatically since the mid- 1990s. Highs are far higher during bubbles, and the drops are extreme, averaging 50% during recessions. Loose monetary policy and the resulting dependence on consumption for GDP growth is a primary underlying cause of these extremes. Source: Bloomberg

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For Bernanke, the final test will be future inflation. If this recovery does in fact hold, then the challenge will be removing the vast liquidity from the market in time to head off excessive inflation while maintaining the base level needed for economic growth. As we witnessed in the 1970s, inflation can create a vastly damaging problem that is tamed only through high restrictive monetary policy, followed by recession. The counter to that scenario is deflation – an equally devastating situation of falling prices which throttles growth that has begun to shape the global debate on emerging economic threats.

The US Economy and The World

Another recession would be devastating given the current state of our economy. The employment picture is the key to this concern. Bernanke, in comments he made on January 3, 2014 at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, cited the 7.5 million new jobs since 2010 as evidence of a stabilizing economy. The dark side of that statistic is that since 2010, the US population has grown by just as much through a mix of immigration and births. Accounting for work force participation rates, we have created only enough jobs to support new workers, the preponderance of which is in low wage jobs. We lost 8.5 million jobs in the recession – that loss has yet to be addressed. A new recession would push down employment levels down to a place not seen since the 1930s.

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Chart 3: Percentage of Americans with Jobs: 1945-2013. We lost 8.5 million jobs in the recession, and while we have gained 7.5 million jobs since then, the US population has grown by almost 10 million people. The effects of the recession are still with us, limiting the spending power of the broad worker base and accentuating the wealth disparity of the recovery. Source: Bloomberg

We do not yet know how successful Bernanke has been. We can see the evidence right now – the stock market raged ahead to new levels that even the most optimistic economists did not predict – but the legacy will be written over the next few years as we see either economic dividends or carnage from this policy.

The unanswered question is whether the stock market rise is anticipating a return to stable growth. Thus far, the news has been encouraging. GDP growth in the US surged ahead in the 3rd quarter of 2013, to 4% – a level that we have not seen sustained in quite a while and would be necessary to justify further market gains. Globally, economic growth is also beginning to creep up as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in the past two weeks have both increased their estimates for growth, something that hasn’t happened in several years.

These revisions are critical to the state of our economy in the coming year. For the equity market levels to be sustained and increased, we need companies to continue to increase their global revenues and not just depend on the American consumer. As the employment picture illustrates, the recovery in the US has been spotty and erratic. A further reliance on consumption domestically could work to push us ahead, but that is a risky bet right now. Exports will have to be a part of longer, sustained US recovery.

To whom we would export however, is a question. Right now, the EU counties and the broader European region have the largest global economy, but that economy has been shrinking, not growing. Part of the encouraging news from the IMF and World Bank is a belief that Europe might actually grow again in 2014. That in itself would be an enormous boost for the US and the other economies that supply Europe.

China is the other economy that can dramatically impact our recovery. At their growth rate and the size of the economy (7.6% growth on a $9 trillion economy, as compared to 2.2% growth on a $16 trillion economy in the US) largely dictates the health of global consumption. While China consumes about half of what we do for every dollar of GDP, the central government has pinned the hopes of sustainable growth on the Chinese consumer. Should that model bear out, it presents tremendous opportunity for US companies. Should it fail, global assets will see another correction in prices with ensuing volatility.

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Chart 4: Comparing the major global economies: Using 2013 figures, actual and estimate, we see the world’s dependence on Chinese growth. Their annual incremental economic growth (Growth Dollars) is double the US. [Growth/Capita shows incremental consumption dollars per individual in that economy]. Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, US Census Bureau

For economic growth to continue for several more years, we need to see the dual support from increased exports and increased domestic consumption. The first part – exports – is being tremendously aided by the energy boom we are experiencing in the US. With the benefits of shale oil and fracking (long-term environmental destruction aside), we are both a cheap energy source for manufacturing and an exporter to the world. For instance, gas exports have increase 3x in the past five years – a mind-blowing change that will have an impact on both economics and global politics.

The silver lining for domestic consumption is housing. We have seen only modest recovery in this sector – existing house prices have recovered just a third of their decline from the recession, and new home construction is still at half the level of long-term needs. With every new home, there is both job creation and increased demand for the goods and services that fill the home. There is room to double the sector in a stable economy, resulting in increased jobs and economic growth, not just for the US but the countries who export to the US. There is enormous potential in the housing sector, but only if Americans feel confident to invest in a new home and have the job stability to do so while the banks continue to lend at low rates.

Markets and Psychology for 2014

As we have seen in the last two growth economies, the equity markets get well ahead of themselves and collapse in a fury. A simple measure to assess this exuberance is the price-to- earnings ratio (P/E) on the market, as well as some key stocks. Right now, the P/E on the S&P 500 sits around 17x, a good clip above its long-term average of 15x. A simple analysis says that if earnings do grow this year by at least 15%, then the stock prices are justified. If not, prices are high.

But is it really so simple? Google has been trading at 25x for many months now, well outside a sustainable range. And the price keeps going up. Retail stores are trading at 30x; some large pharmaceuticals trade at even higher ratios.

Historically, the P/E will continue to climb well past these levels before investors notice that the punch bowl has been drained. During the last two bubble markets, the S&P 500 reached 25x and 30x, both well above where we stand today. This doesn’t imply that the market will go up without some further developments to sustain investor’s excessive optimism, but don’t be surprised if there are new predictions in the coming months about how we are again seeing a “new economy” in which fundamentals are worth ignoring. History will repeat itself.

With this in mind, and all of the economic realities outlined thus far, we remain cautiously optimistic in our asset allocations. We continue to maintain our equity exposure at levels to reflect the risks, but have made incremental changes to capture the market psychology (called “risk-on”) and expectations of better global growth. We are also very active in the management of the bond side, keeping durations rather tight, using bond ladders and actively trading some positions to manage total return rather than allow market movements to dictate returns.

Commodities were a challenge for us in 2013, with metals and agriculture taking a beating while partially offset by timber and energy. Given our global view, commodities could do quite well in the coming year with increased demand for many raw materials. Housing may start driving up timber prices, and food prices may be impacted by continued meteorological and demographic disruptions (who knows how the Polar Vortex that has held the nation in a frozen grip will affect food production and sales?). We will continue to maintain these exposures with some adjustments to reflect our core values at Vodia.

All in all, we are again facing challenging times. The global economy is shifting in ways that are impossible to predict, with secondary and tertiary effects that reverberate throughout all asset classes. There are many positives to embrace in the short term, and many disturbing issues that must be resolved in the long term. Our approach – to reassess every quarter and step forward with caution – will continue to be our mandate as we continue to be thoughtful while we observe the world around us.

Best of luck with this winter and the Polar Vortices!

Regards,

David B. Matias, CPA

Managing Principal

Market Update: October 2013

October 11, 2013/in Market Update /by David Matias

From Tapering to Teetering

As has been the pattern of the past six years, the summer always brings an interesting set of challenges for the financial markets. This summer was no exception, from continued uncertainty in the financial markets soothed over by unprecedented Fed stimulus to geopolitical developments that are still unfolding. Unfortunately, the political dysfunction that has riddled the nation for the past fews years has reached a stage that will only continue to harm the economy and the country.

The positives, however, are fairly obvious: the US continues to pump $85 billion of newly printed money into the system on a monthly basis, with the stock market as the primary beneficiary. While the numbers vary week to week, the S&P500 is up around 15% year-to-date. The other bits of good news are real estate prices, which are on a remarkable recovery, a nominally growing US economy, solid corporate profits, and the recent changes in our energy dependence.

Unfortunately, each of those positives are countered by negatives: the stock market went apoplectic when Ben Bernanke suggested tapering of the stimulus, growth from the emerging markets has faltered, US overall employment levels are the same as five years ago (mid-recession), and the economic growth in the US is significantly below the long-term average needed to insulate us from negative shocks.

The employment picture is perhaps the best place to find reasons for caution. Although the unemployment figure we so often read about is significantly down from the high of ten percent, the employment picture is a bifurcated situation. In the recession, we lost nearly 10 million jobs in the span of just a few quarters. And while we have created 7 million jobs since then, our labor force has grown in those five years by roughly the same number. So in short, the labor participation rate among Americans is at a 30-year low. The following chart shows this fairly well.

Chart 1: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the percentage of people employed between the ages of 16 and 65. This chart covers 1981 to present, and shows that the labor rate has not changed since 2009. With a labor rate equivalent to the 1980s, we are creating only enough jobs to satisfy the growing population base, but not replacing those lost in the recession.

The anecdotal evidence suggests the jobs we’ve created in the past five years are of far lesser value than the jobs lost. Most are at minimum wage, there is a tremendous underemployment problem, and the divisions among social classes continues to widen. These issues only make the next conundrum even more challenging.

Market behavior continues to indicate that we are in a cycle of bubble markets driven by consumption economics. The next chart shows the movement of the S&P 500 over the past 30 years, in which the market is pushed to new highs in each cycle. The driving force behind these peaks is external stimulus leading to bubble asset valuations (dotcom in the 90s, real estate in the 00s, and Fed stimulus in the 10s). In the collapse of the two prior bubbles, the damage to the financial condition of the broader society was extensive – far greater than the benefits from those bubbles.

Chart 2: The US stock market over the past 20 years (S&P500) has shown a broad trend of asset inflation followed by steep drops as the economic growth falters. These asset bubbles have been extraordinarily damaging, with the potential that we have formed another one. Corporate profits will ultimately determine the breath and depth of the rise and fall.

For the current market rise to continue (as opposed to correcting by 20%-50%), we need corporate revenues to grow. Thus far, corporate profitability has backfilled the market as price-to-earnings ratios remain at or below historical averages (16x). This has been primarily achieved through layoffs and productivity increases with some revenue increase. With the internal measures largely exhausted, revenue growth is going to be front and center for the next several quarters.

This picture could work but demand needs to come from a mixture of domestic and global consumers. The global scene is dominated by Europe – still struggling to get out of a recession – and Emerging Markets. As we have seen in China and elsewhere, the massive boom in the emerging markets over the past decade has created disruptive air pockets that make predictable growth elusive. Hence, the need for the American consumer to find additional disposable income or a willingness to once again increase personal debt levels. With such a stagnant US employment situation, neither are likely soon.

Chart 3. As the US equity markets surged ahead (S&P 500 shown in red) in the first two quarters, Q3 saw the Emerging Markets (shown in green) stage a partial recovery while Europe & Japan (shown in blue) also posted stronger gains.

It is for these reasons that we at Vodia Capital maintain a diversified asset allocation strategy for our portfolios. Relying on just equities to drive gains would subject portfolios to far too much volatility and uncertainly. While markets have shown an ability to recover in the past, these gyrations eat away at long-term returns and ultimately underperform when compared to a diversified strategy. In response, we continue to use fixed income, commodities and derivates to both stabilize portfolios from global uncertainty and generate predictable growth.

Geopolitical

The biggest challenge to backfilling the equity asset bubble is global conflict. Domestic issues are important and bleak, but with enough time and some basic legislation, our current situation will ameliorate or the domestic economy will simply adapt. But until that happens, we do not have enough consistent economic growth to withstand a shock to the system and not enter another recession.

The global issues are less predictable, although we seem to have hit a moment of pause. Despite my wildest expectations, the situation in Syria seems to have found a multi-lateral solution with Russia participating and China consenting. While I have my doubts on the ability for the global community to truly disarm Syria’s WMD capabilities in the long-term, it is a relief to see it handled through cooperative diplomacy and through the UN.

On a separate but related front, Iran has consistently posed the greatest threat to global stability in the past few years. Compared to Syria, Iran’s pursuit of WMD’s is a real problem with real ramifications. Not to overstate the situation, but by many accounts this region was on the brink war if something was not done soon. And while I also have serious doubts as to the authenticity of Iran’s overtures, we have taken steps to open a dialogue that has been closed for decades. That is progress.

Where we do not have progress is in our own political structure. As of this writing, we have a partial shutdown of our government, with another looming prospect of defaulting on our debt in another three weeks. By some estimates, a complete shutdown of a few weeks could wipe out our economic growth for the quarter and possibly the year. And defaulting on our debt is simply a non-starter – the financial ramifications are just too vast to play with. While cooler heads will prevail, the damage to the economy through continued uncertainty has already taken a toll on lower economic growth.

Changing Energy Dynamics

The most promising development is the changing energy dynamic in the US. The past six years have seen a dramatic and unprecedented change in our energy dependence. Despite the mild economic recover, our use of oil has actually decreased by 10% from a combination of better vehicle fuel economy and alternative sources. During this same time, our oil production has doubled from technological advances. The net impact is to decrease our reliance on oil imports by half, to less than 10% of global production.

Combined with our natural gas boom, this is an incredibly positive development for the economy. Much of our economic growth over the past decades has depended on cheap energy, creating a political structure and international presence that went to extreme lengths to protect the dynamic. As net exporters or natural gas and coal, along with a far lighter dependence on the global oil market, untold resources will be freed up and could generate a new form of a “peace dividend” that we experienced post-Cold War.

The medium-term impact of our energy production and consumption is still of grave concern – from global climate change to the damage we are doing to our drinking water. The shift to alternative sources, whether they be truly green or simply move us away from oil, is of paramount importance and must continue. But the ability to shift a focus away from deeply disruptive policies to protect a bad oil dynamic is a start. Where we take it next will determine just how much of a global leader we can be in the coming decades as the forces of economics increasingly determine our actions as a country.

All the best for an enjoyable fall.

Regards,

David B. Matias, CPA

Managing Principal

Market Update: June 2013

June 28, 2013/in Market Update /by David Matias

What is NORMAL?

Normal is a much-overused but complex word. It can refer to societal values that reflect one group’s preferences to the exclusion of another. In a statistical sense, it refers to a baseline expectation drawn from reams of data. When you combine the two, you create statistical measures that can be used to determine behavior in certain situations, such as IQ tests. You see how this gets tricky, and fast.

Now let’s discuss the “normal” of economics. The financial markets are permeated with the statistical use of “normal” – without some idea of what “normal” looks like all of risk management and portfolio construction would fall apart. But now economists are trying to assess this current economic period as either a “new normal” or a return to the “old normal.” But what exactly does that mean?

As you will have gathered from my blog entries and market updates, I often point out where the statistical use of “normal” in the financial markets is broken. Whether it is the price movement on gold or the stock market collapse of 2008/2009, “events” have happened that simply should not have – they seem, to us, to be statistically impossible and “abnormal.” As an asset manager, it is terrifying at times that the statistical “normal” of the past 50 years is no longer valid.

Somewhere along the way, someone decided that the word “normal” will make it easier for people to understand a complex topic. We live in a world of mass media and shortened attention spans, where messages need to be simple and short or else they are ignored (think Twitter). Hence, the word “normal” has been redeployed in our current world without people stopping to think about what it really means, much as they don’t think about the incessant sound bites of recent political campaigns. Unfortunately, the word “normal” captures very little of reality, and leads to a misguided sense of safety for investors.

In the broadest sense, there is nothing normal about the economy today. We have a world population that now exceeds seven billion people and a method of supporting those lives through consumption-based wealth creation. That is not normal – it has never happened before and we don’t know if it can be sustained.

Yet here in the US, we are supported by an economic model that has been proven over decades. We have a population that grows at 187,500 people per month, and an economy that is just generating roughly that same number of jobs. We have been the center of innovation and entrepreneurship for the globe for a century, and combined with a tremendous level of investment over that period, we have an economic base that supports the wealthiest nation today.

The challenges here, however, are vast.

Job growth is able to support the current population growth, but does not replace any of the jobs lost in 2008 and 2009. Today, we have the same relative number of jobs as the 1970s – when most households had a single wage earner. To replace those jobs, however, we need to consume at a level consistent with dual-income households.
The economic growth necessary to build back those jobs might not be attainable – that is the core of the current economic debate. We need 4% annual growth – we’ve been lucky to see half that over the past fifteen years.
Wealth is more concentrated now than in the past 100 years. Middle income families have been decimated by the financial turmoil (retirement and real estate assets), while the top income groups have seen their wealth explode.
Our political structure is largely paralyzed in guiding the nation’s resources and regulations in a way that invests for the future – whether it be in education, transportation, or conservation of natural resources.
The explosion of the digital age has created large potholes in the road to certainty. Whether it be financial calamities from computerized trading systems, social unrest, or the leaking of state secrets, these changes are redefining expectations.

To reframe what “normal” means , I might like to suggest instead that we think about expectations. People, for the most part, like to know what will happen next – whether it be the length of a commute or the length of a retirement. In today’s world, those expectations are increasingly altered, erased, or shattered. And with it comes a deep sense of uncertainty – the bane of stable financial assets.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

With that introduction, I would like to say there is in fact good news to discuss. Last week’s dismal market performance masks one very important bit of news – the Fed believes that the economy is improving, so much so, in fact, that they might start to “taper” back on their historical stimulus program within a year or so.

Rather than treat this news with excitement, the market plunged. And it wasn’t just stocks – it was everything. (For those who wonder if this might be “normal” or part of the “new normal,” , let me point out that this 1.0 correlation broke all normal statistical expectations). It parallels the market behavior of this year – bad news is good for the markets, good news is bad for the markets.

People are saying that the US markets are up strictly because of all the stimulus. Without that stimulus, things will go back to “normal” – positive real bond yields, stock prices that follow company profits, and commodities prices that reflect demand. In other words, markets will have to reflect “normal” values for things, as opposed to the central bank inflation created by trillions in new money. That is not really a bad thing – in fact it is astoundingly good. The printing of money cannot continue without there being some serious damage to the global financial system in the form of currency devaluation and price inflation.

But like every aberration we have seen in the past five years, change is not taken well by the financial markets, even if the change in this case is a change in expectations about something that might happen a year from now.

Our role as investment managers is to determine what assets will be worth, based on their intrinsic value today and growth potential for tomorrow. To review the major asset classes and our perspective going forward:

Domestic Equities: US stocks have taken a beating, but only just so much. They were down 6% from their highs, but up 18% before the sell-off (for a net gain of 14% for the year as of right now). Whether we continue down or up from here is well beyond anyone’s control or foresight right now.

Our investment perspective on equities is essentially to stay steady – we have already kept a lower equity exposure precisely because of the inherent volatility, but do not believe that the recent volatility is reason to change that position. Instead, we are viewing this as an opportunity to increase investments in those individual equities that have the fundamental value and growth prospects to benefit from a growing US economy.

Valuations on the broad market are reasonable (S&P500 is around 15x earnings) and balance sheet structure of these companies is remarkably strong, thanks to years of cheap corporate borrowing. US companies have also shown further strength in their global customer base – as the world grows, so do the markets for many of the best US companies. If it is true that the economy is showing further signs of strength – as signaled by the Fed this week – then US companies are extremely well positioned to benefit.

The risk is a host of geo-political troubles that could trigger a global recession. There is no immediate indication that such a situation will arise imminently, but until we have see resolution in a couple of situations, we are going to maintain these equity levels as a buffer.

Foreign Equities: Here the story in remarkable contrast to the US. In short, the global stimulus from the central banks – not just the US – has propped up these markets for the past two years. Under the surface, however, the economic growth is weak. Europe has been in a recession for quite some time, Japan was on life support until recently and the emerging markets cannot support their economic growth through internal consumption.

The resulting equity performance is rough. Global markets have shown just a few percentage points of gain this year (if not a small loss right now). Emerging markets on their own are down 12% on average, with some markets taking a 25% beating.

As investment managers, we have avoided Europe almost completely but still maintain a modest exposure to the emerging markets. We’ve done this mainly through positions in US companies that sell heavily into those markets, and whose future profitability will depend on growth in those regions. We are still very positive for the growth prospects for the emerging markets and view the current swoon as a market psychology driven movement. Especially as the US slowly pulls into a higher growth mode, these regions will benefit significantly.

Domestic Fixed Income: This market has received an enormous amount of attention of late in the form of interest rate movements of historical proportions. Rates on the 10-year Treasury note have move from 1.6% to 2.6% in a matter of weeks, and the 30-year rates have gone from 2.8% to 3.6% in that period. Again – “normal” of any sort doesn’t compute.

The impact on bond prices is tremendous – market price move down as yields go up. But from the perspective of an investor holding bonds to maturity, it is good news. As long as your maturities are relatively short, you will get to reinvest your cash at higher rates down the road, once your bonds mature at par. There is no impairment of value in this situation – a fact that is often overlooked.

Commodities: Again, this market has taken a beating this year, although far less so than some of the global equities. As emerging markets are perceived as slowing down, so does the thinking for the commodities consumed by growth.

Our perspective is quite to the contrary. The slowdown in emerging markets growth is only temporary. The US is pulling out of its malaise, and population growth in developing regions will continue to fuel demand. China, for instance, is planning to urbanize 250 million people in the next decade. To put that into perspective, that is the same population of all the major cities around the world – combined.

In addition to the global demand for construction resources, we are holding a notable position in grains and agriculture. The dynamic is a simple one: populations are growing and the global middle class is consuming more meats and high value foods. Production is keeping up – but just as long as there are reliable and predictable methods. Climate change is for real, however, and creates mayhem in the production cycles through drought, flood, and changing weather patterns. As we saw last summer, with these disruptions comes significant supply constraints and rising prices.

The area that is least “normal” is metals. Gold and silver, the two metals that we use for hedging purposes have seen historic declines. The price of silver has been cut in half with all the reactivity to the central banks, gold is off a third. More disconcerting is the daily movement, which is down under every market condition – whether there is good news in the world or bad.

Seeing these risks, we exited our silver position many months ago, just at the high. We kept the gold, however, as a hedge against some of the events we have recently witnesses. But in the break from any form of “normal” that hedge has failed and the position has been a drag. Under the perspective that this is a market dislocation unrelated to the value of metals, we continue to monitor that market and the timing for when it may make sense to restore the positions to their original allocation.

CONCLUSION

In summary, it has been an unusual year. The markets went straight up for four months, creating a buzz reminiscent of the late 1990s. During that period, stocks went up at a blistering pace and there seemed to be no end in sight for the dotcom stocks. The buzz was a simple, yet persistent demand to be in the stock market. If you were not fully invested, then you were “missing out.” Unfortunately, those who did go full into the market saw a remarkable event – a -70% loss in their portfolio values.

That buzz has ended now, as we are reminded of the vast uncertainty in the equity markets. In the last month, we have begun to witness volatility across disparate asset classes, from US Treasuries to Japanese equities. During late May and early June, the Nikkei had five trading days of 3-7% losses. Then just three weeks ago, it saw a 5% gain in one day. Like the movement in gold just two months ago and again now, that volatility is well outside “normal” volatility. And it is happening in US equities, to a smaller but notable degree.

To make this point, for the months of May and June (since the Fed started to talk about “tapering”), we have had 24 days of 100+ point movements in the Dow Industrials average: thirteen times it was up, eleven times it was down. That contrasts to the first three months of the year in which there were just nine such days, only two of which were down. Volatility came back with a vengeance, and when it did losses ensued.

As reported by the financial website Seeking Alpha and others, May saw the highest equity weighting among individual investors since September 2007. As a reminder, September 2007 was the beginning of the equity decline that lasted 18 months and 50% down. In the parlance of market psychology, it is not unusual for individual investors to be the last to the party.

And this lack of “normal” is creating havoc for the institutional managers as well. Hedge funds, the massively concentrated pools of capital that supposedly can time these events, have done no better. With gains of roughly 2.7% for the year, they haven’t solved this problem – no one is immune.

Our view is that we are seeing the shift to an investment environment based in old-fashioned fundamentals as the US economy pulls forward and artificial drivers fade out. It could take years, but ultimately that is a good thing. In the process, there will be uncertainty and wild volatility.

In the end, there is nothing normal about these markets – old or new. We are going through changes on historic scales, and as we continue to remind folks, we are all sorting through the events and the data to find the best places to invest assets for the future.

All the best for an enjoyable summer.

Regards,

David B. Matias, CPA

Managing Principal

Market Update: April 2012

April 10, 2012/in Market Update /by David Matias

Spring Is Here and the Birds Are Chirping

This was quite a remarkable quarter: the stock market was up 12.6%, Apple just declared a dividend pushing it above $600 per share, and I hear birds chirping from my window. Markets around the world are going straight up – what could be wrong in the world?

In my typical dose of caution and concern, there is a lot. But rather than worry about what might be the issues for us to face – which frankly have not changed a bit since my last Market Update from January 2012 – I’d rather focus on some of the psychology that emerges in these situations. Unfortunately the history of our “efficient” markets is littered with examples of gross inefficiencies driven by investor psychology.

One simple example is to look at the market volatility from 2011. The chart below shows the S&P500 for the year of 2011, a chart that I have used in the past. While the course of the market was remarkable – record setting in fact – the end result was eerily simple. When looked at from point-to-point (January 1 to December 31), the market was dead flat.

The second chart shows a comparison of January-February on the left side against August-September on the right side. Two very different charts from the same year – polar opposites in fact.

2011 generated stock market movements at the polar opposites of market theory. The left side is the calm market of January-February, while the right side is the historical choppiness of August-September.

In the first part of the year there was all the buzz of a strong economic recovery, jobs growth, real estate price stabilization and stock market recovery. As we now know, most of these claims were either false or premature. What came to the fore later in the year was the reality of debt overload, sovereign defaults, and a European recession. When you look at the side-by-side, the impact of psychology leaps from the page. During Jan/Feb of 2011, the market rise was steady, stable and predictable (low volatility). During Sept/Oct of the same year, the market was choppy, erratic, and unpredictable.

To put this into context, traditional economic and finance theory relies heavily on the notion of efficient markets and statistical trends based in a lognormal distribution of stock market returns. In that paradigm, the likelihood of the right chart occurring is roughly a 6-sigma event. In more pedestrian terms, these events are likely to occur once every 5,480 years (roughly since the start of history according to the Jewish calendar). That should give you a moment of pause.

My point is a simple one. Conventional theories about the economy and markets are severely limited in describing current events. In many ways, broken. Yet, the underlying fundamentals of our world are deeply challenged – American society has been turned inside-out, developed economies are carrying debt loads that are unsustainable, and global conflicts are playing out in ways that can no longer be managed.

A more likely explanation for the first quarter performance is a host of factors that have nothing to do with fundamental strength. I’ve heard one theory of investor boredom – too much bad news has resulted in a form of indifference. Another theory is manipulation by the Federal Reserve Bank – with near-zero interest rates and over a trillion dollars flooded into the banking system, money needs a home to generate profits. You won’t get it in the traditional bond market, with short-term rates near zero. But you will get it in the form of dividend paying stocks.

To support the second theory, The Wall Street Journal reported that this year $9 billion of investor money flowed into mutual funds and ETFs with stock-dividend strategies. All other funds had a net outflow of $7.3 billion. (see Jason Zweig article, “The Dividend-Fund Dilemma” on April 7, 2012). Investors are chasing some sort of return, irrespective of the risks. While a stable stock could lose half its value in the matter of a few weeks (such as 2008), the prospect of a 3% dividend yield is enticing enough to warrant the risk. Wow.

To add a bit of punctuation to those thoughts, take a look at the next chart comparison – the start of 2011 and the start of 2012:

The start of 2012 look eerily similar to the start of 2011. How the rest of this year progresses is the question.

Since the collapse of 2008, we have gone through a number of cycles around volatility that repeat. I never mean to predict where the market goes next, but I do want to point out the irony of the volatility pattern and the interplay with investor euphoria.

Apple and Facebook

Perhaps another sign of psychology gone awry is Apple. While Apple is by far my favorite company in the history of the planet (and a stock that many of our clients hold and have handsomely profited on), the psychology around Apple is unmistakable. Based on strong earnings and the resumption of their dividend, the stock was up 48% in Q1. That gives them the largest market-cap in the world today of almost $600 billion. If Apple were a country, it would place them in the top-20 globally, somewhere behind South Korea and ahead of Poland. Not bad. And with $100 billion of cash, they can afford to pay a dividend now.

But what happens next? Other companies of their size trade at roughly 11x earnings and experience growth rates in the single digits. Never has a company been this large, and never has such a large company doubled in less than several years. Yet the headlines defy common sense – “Apple to hit $1,001!” I’m not sure which part of this is more comical. Perhaps it is the inference that you should put your money into Apple now because it will soon double to become a $1 trillion dollar company (they would start to rival India). Or perhaps it is the notion that they’re just messing with you, “Hey – let’s come up with a random number that people will love. Like $1,000. That’s cool! No, make it $1,001! That’s cooler!!!.

Don’t get me wrong – there is a day when Apple will likely hit $1,000 per share (and yes, even $1,001). But that day is more likely to be years away, with many gyrations in between. You have market volatility, global conflict and product disappointment all standing between now and then. You even have the potential for scandal and misdeed. Apple is like any other company in the end, and while they have succeeded in changing the way that people use technology, it is still just a stock with all the failings that stocks hold.

What we cannot predict, or grasp, is the power of market psychology. We saw it happen in the late 1990s with the dotcom bubble. Crazy, stupid predictions were levied against company stocks. And for a long time, those predictions held because of the sheer power of the herd. When the bubble finally popped, it was a long fall. The NASDAQ hit 5,100 at the peek. It then fell 78%. Today the NASDAQ sits at 3,000. That is quite a powerful bubble that inflated in the 90s. It will happen again.

And we didn’t have to wait long. This morning, Instagram just sold for $1 billion. They have no profit, no revenue, and thirteen employees. (The first half of this article was written two days, before the announcement – honestly!). Back in the height of the dotcom boom, companies were valued at roughly $2 million per employee despite a lack of profits. Now, it seems that zero revenue can get you around $70 million per employee. Insane? Yes… and no. Allow me to explain.

Facebook is the acquirer. They have been trading in the private market at roughly a $100 billion valuation, or 150x earnings (at least they have earnings). Again, a seemingly insane valuation. Yet, the valuation is justified because the current buyers expect an IPO in May that will allow them an even higher valuation to sell their shares. Because of the euphoric stock market, Facebook now has a “currency” – their stock – that allows for the type of transaction we saw this morning. Without the public equity market, Facebook wouldn’t have the currency to make this deal. Without a bubble, the equity markets wouldn’t place such a ridiculous value on the company.

But why should this matter if the markets are efficient and everyone has a chance to buy or sell at will? The grim reality is that someone will be left holding the bag, a devious game of musical chairs. And I can promise you, as we saw twelve years ago, those left with sizable losses are individuals who chase the markets in hopes of gaining a stronger retirement. They are the ones that inflate the last bit of the bubble, when the institutional traders have started to make for the exits and the employees of Facebook and Instagram have cashed out of their stock.

While I don’t intend to inspire a debate about social injustice, this pattern has played out before. And the results dragged down the US economy for a decade now, delaying retirement for millions of folks and stripped away jobs from an otherwise healthy economy. Bubbles create extensive damage, far more than the benefits that are reaped during the inflation.

Investment Direction

As you will see in our current portfolios, we have maintained a conservative posture despite the market rally. Our equity positions, at roughly a third of portfolios (or less), have done well on the heels of strong individual stock performance (namely Apple, Intel and Weyerhauser). We don’t expect this range of outperformance again, but I also don’t expect this market rally to continue at this pace.

The balance of the portfolio is in bonds (40-50%) and commodities (10-15%). Both have been remarkably stable over the past year, and this quarter is no different. The bonds are geared to provide a stable income stream at above market rates. We continue to do so with the use of unusual or illiquid pieces and ongoing in-house research to identify opportunities. The commodities are a hedge against dollar deflation – a very real possibility as the economy stumbles through the next few quarters. As the government expands the dollar base through Fed action and we pile up debts at the state and Federal level, the pressure on the dollar will increase.

Finally we continue to look at hedges against future volatility. It is a very real concern, and could be an immediate problem with just a couple of global events. As we saw in 2011, most hedges were ineffective as volatility reached well beyond historical trends. We continue to integrate these lessons learned into our strategy while looking for situations in which the markets can challenge us in new ways.

I know that these updates create a certain level of dejection with a few of my fans, and wish that I could be more enthusiastic about the financial situation. But the realities are tough to ignore, and I’ve always believed that accurate and full information is far more beneficial as we make investment decisions and life choices.

All the best for an enjoyable spring.

Regards,

David B. Matias, CPA

Managing Principal

Market Update: October 2011

October 5, 2011/in Market Update /by David Matias

Market Update – October 2011

Since my last market update, we have witnessed another collapse not unlike the fall of 2008. In many ways this time is different. The markets have lost only 17% from their highs, no banks have failed and many asset classes are still holding onto their fundamental value. But in a troubling manner, this time is quite similar to 2008 when one looks at volatility and fear. Once again at Vodia we are asked the questions about economic Armageddon and depression. New records are set based on daily market movements, and assets bubbles are formed and deflated on a weekly basis.

This market review will look at the major trends over the past two months, both economic and psychological. What I will leave to a different writing are the reasons that we are here – a culmination of factors and behaviors that have come together after decades of erosion to our economic core and serial financial bubbles. Look for our Research Note in mid-October that directly addresses the origins of our economic troubles.

Fear for Fear Itself

At the core of our investment philosophy is the understanding and management of risk. In its simplest form, we as human beings abhor uncertainty. Whether it be the ancients calling on the gods for a rationale behind randomness or the television weather forecasters pinpointing the next storm (with about as much success as the ancients), we simply want to know what happens next. In the converse, the presence of certainty creates a level of value in itself. For instance, those companies that pay an increasing dividend, come thick or thin, are valued far higher than those companies who have a variable dividend policy. And a known income stream from a bond is more attractive than a higher income stream that might include losses.

This dynamic has stretched to a level that we have never seen before. In its most direct form, the bond market with its “knowns” has fared far better than the stock market this year. In fact, despite the downgrade on US Treasuries, they are the best performing asset class for the quarter. But not just on a relative basis. Last month, the return on a 10-year Treasury traded as low as 1.7% per annum. On an absolute basis, the 10-year has never traded at that level – ever. The investment here is a stark one – agree to give the government your money for the next ten years and receive 1.7% (taxable) per year, irrespective of inflation or the value of the dollar. Given that inflation averages 3% per year, you are accepting a known loss for this certainty. That is fear in its simplest version.

There are a number of factors that have driven rates to those levels, many of which relate to the economy and the current political situation in Washington. But one of those factors is indisputable – the wild gyrations of the stock market. The chart below shows the movement of the S&P 500 for the year to date. While all was cozy during the first half of the year, with the market moving in a range of +1 to +10%, August was a collapse. On the heels of Standard & Poor’s debt downgrade of the US (I won’t waste any more of your time or ink on that debacle), the market lost 11% in the span of just two days. It was a movement straight down and one that we highlighted in our August Market Update, when we also indicated that these lows on the S&P 500 would be seen again.

Over the past three years we have seen the S&P 500 go from highs to extreme lows and back again. From where we stand now, the market could easily break in either direction – back to the lows or back to the highs – dependent as much on economic fundamentals as investor psychology. Volatility will have a heavy influence on the next set of moves.

When isolated from the broader movements, the past three months witnessed a steep decline followed by seven weeks of volatility with the market in a holding pattern relative to the overall trend.

Since those few days in August, it has been a form of volatility that I’ve never seen in the markets, either current or historically. While the daily movements regularly range up to 4%, and movements of 10% almost every week, the market has not gained or lost any value. We are “range-bound” – stuck between 1100 and 1218 on the S&P 500, while showing no signs of leaving that range. Yes, we have hit those early August lows again, and again and again (as of this writing, we are hitting them for the 5^th time in two months). But never any lower. It is volatility for the sake of volatility.

This has a devastating effect on the markets, not unlike the collapse of a bank. Individual investors are simply driven from the market, leaving just the gamblers and day traders. Mutual funds and institutional investors are forced into defensive positions to attempt to protect their funds and fear becomes the trade. The only ones who benefit, ironically, are the banks who run their own trading desks that profit on fear and volatility.

The impact can be seen across a range of assets and investments. I already touched upon the Treasury market, but all bonds have gone through gyrations and twists that defy a simple explanation. Some examples from the past three weeks alone: Gold was down -16% in September after being up +18% in August. Silver was down -38% in September after a +60% run-up during the year. And junk bonds are down -6% in just a few days being stable throughout the quarter.

The volatility of the equity markets has generated its own trading dynamics, driving up volatility in many of the safer assets and driving down prices. In this respect, we are witnessing a very similar set of dynamics to 2008. Yet the causes are different, and the effects will also render different results.

Economic Stresses

The impetus to these market conditions is surprisingly a set of conditions that are not a surprise. As at least one economist put it on NPR last week, we are coming to realize the full extent of the economic malaise and recession that began in 2006. While the National Bureau of Economic Research pinpointed the recession to the end of 2007, it seems that the economy was in a retracted state for quite some time, and has likely never left that state. And while the economic stimulus from 2009 helped to avert further declines, it was not enough to reverse the contractions on a permanent basis.

This dynamic is evident in the employment figures that we have been tracking since the recession began. As a reminder, we look at total US employment as a measure of economic health, not the unemployment figure as widely reported. While they should intuitively be the corollary of each other, the latter statistic is deeply flawed. Only by looking at true employment do we get a sense of where we have been as an economy and where we might be headed. Looking at the percentage of Americans who are employed today, it has experienced a massive decline from the employment highs of the past 20 years, putting us at sustained levels not experienced since the 1970s.

While the American economy and demographic has evolved since the 1940s, our employment situation has deteriorated to the same levels as forty years ago.

When combined with the very real demographic and cultural shifts in America, our current employment level introduces a new standard of living for Americans. With healthcare and educational costs rising 10-fold since the 1970s, combined with elevated debt levels, our standard of living increasingly depends on dual-income households which have gone from the norm to a luxury in this recession. The shift is not a subtle one, nor a happy one. From recent college grads who bemoan living at home while they take on internships, to 50-somethings who are forced into retirement after corporate downsizing, the changes are inescapable.

Beyond the employment picture, we have the continued overhang from the real estate bubble. With so many mortgages underwater, millions in foreclosure, and banks unwilling to lend to anyone but the perfect borrower, the primary asset class and savings vehicle for Americans is stuck. Given the magnitude of the problem, it will be several years until we begin to see certainty in real estate price appreciation. Although some regions are still faring well, there are entire swaths of homes across the South and West that will need to find buyers or be demolished. A sad waste of resources and economic capital.

Rest of the World

And while we struggle here at home to find our economic footing, alongside a political dysfunction that could be a tale of self-interest for the ages, Europe and Asia are struggling in different but equally damaging ways. Again not new, Greece’s woes are still at the center of a potential European collapse. In this situation, it is not the prospect of a Greek default that is the problem. It is the follow-on failures of the holders of Greek debt that worries the financial world. In a manner not that different from Lehman’s collapse of 2008, Greece could trigger a broader meltdown.

The prospects for stemming this collapse are tangled yet again into political inaction. The solution could be a simple one that begins with shared sacrifice. But it appears that few of the participants are willing to accept responsibility for these decisions while the citizens of these countries cry out in despair at the thought of losing their socialized state. Change and uncertainty is difficult for everyone – whether it be in the form of market volatility or smaller pensions. Yet this is the prospect that we must all face.

So while Europe deals with their decades of indecision and bloated budgets, Asia is facing a far different yet equally daunting challenge. China in particular is starting to show the cracks of an overambitious expansion plan that ignores the impact beyond its borders. Starting with a decade of currency manipulation, China finds itself the lender to the world holding onto collateral that might be worth far less than previously assumed. By being the low-cost provider while effectively banning imports for the past twenty years, China has amassed trillions in foreign currency and foreign debt while the rest of the world struggles to manage their debt obligations.

China pursued this policy in the modernization of one billion people while maintaining tight control of society. The policy extended to research and development, where China unabashedly steals from the world what they view as important to their economy. The disregard for intellectual property (IP), namely the theft of all IP that enters the country, may have shown its first fatal flaws this summer. While there is no definite evidence of such, The Wall Street Journal reported that China’s fatal high-speed train crash might be a by-product of a foreign firm’s unwillingness to share proprietary details on the collision avoidance systems that China employs. Knowing that anything sent to China will be reverse-engineered, the Japanese provider of these systems put the controls into a “blackbox” solution that protects their design. Unfortunately, it also prevents diagnostics on these devices, leaving testing to real-life events. On the heels of short-cuts from rapid development, the entire rail system is now exposed to failures that are absent in high-speed rail systems around the world.

Painful Decade or Bad Century

As we will address in our Research Note, we are facing the pain for decades of failed government policies, a short-sighted consumer society and a financial services sector run amuck. And in the same way that it took decades to get here, it will be at least a decade to get out of this hole. The asset bubbles of the 1990s and 2000s only served to mask the problem, and deepen the hole. Now is time to inch out of that hole. As Thomas Friedman recently said, we can have a painful decade ahead or a bad century.

In the short term, we need for some calm in the markets to restore values to their intrinsic level. What happens on a monetary and fiscal level will help with the short-term loss of values, and maybe even aid in the recovery. But it will require a shift in the way that we function as an economy and society for these troubles to be permanently eradicated.

Fortunately, some signs of those changes are starting to happen. The outsourcing of jobs to China and other countries is no longer a panacea. Ford announced recently that they will bring some of those jobs back, at competitive wages based on negotiations with the labor unions. Americans now have a completely different view of debt, and are far less willing to surrender their financial future to the whims of a monolithic bank. And households will learn to live on a single income and adjust their spending decisions accordingly.

In the meantime, despite society’s kicking and screaming (whether it be riots in Europe or delusional political rhetoric in the US), we are going to suffer through the shift in consumption, savings, and investment that lead to a sustainable economy. There are times when volatility will reign, such as now, and there will be times when it looks like this was all a bad dream. Let us hope in the process we don’t continue to damage what we do have left.

All the best for fall.

Regards,

David B. Matias, CPA
Managing Principal

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