Advance estimate for Q2 2010 GDP due out this Friday

On Friday July 30th the 1st estimate for GDP for the second quarter will be released by the government.  Economists are estimating growth of 2.5% with a range of 1.00% to 4.00%.  This follows the first quarter growth of 2.7% and Q4 2009 GDP of 5.6%.  The economy continues to be sluggish overall and most of the data has been mixed.  Housing, jobs, and consumer confidence have weighed on the economy, but corporate profits and manufacturing have been positive.  We have left the abyss of 2008-9 behind us and the economy has stabilized.  Unfortunately the high growth  that usually occurs after a recession has not materialized yet.  I don’t think we are in store for a double dip recession, but it is very clear that there is a lot of pessimism both in the market and in the consumer.

In addition to the GDP numbers many other economic indicators are due out this week including:

• CaseShiller Home Prices
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
• Consumer Confidence
• Durable Good Orders
• Fed’s Beige Book

And if that isn’t enough for you… The commerce department will also be releasing their annual revision to growth figures over the last three years, which might cause even more volatility in the markets if revisions are negative. It should be an interesting week that will hopefully clear out some of the uncertainty in the market, whether good or bad.

Marcus Green